![]() ![]() Today, Suffolk and USA TODAY released findings from a current national poll of unlikely voters, and the results contrast sharply from what we published five years ago. COVID increased the availability of mail-in and absentee ballots and reduced the barriers to voting in many states. Thus, every unlikely voter the Democratic National Committee nudged was more likely to vote for the Democratic nominee than Trump. In the poll, a generic Democratic nominee (the nominee had not been selected yet) was leading then-President Trump in a hypothetical general election matchup, 35%- 26%. ![]() Conversely, TV news networks has dropped from 52% to 36% during that same time.įive years ago, Suffolk University and USA TODAY partnered on a poll of unlikely voters exclusively and showed that by “getting out the vote,” the Democratic nominee could win the presidency. So, where do these potential voters get their information? One-third named social media (Facebook, X, Instagram or TikTok) as their primary source of political news and information, twice as many as in 2018. That’s more potential voters than Joe Biden received in the 2020 presidential election, when he set the record for the most votes received by any presidential candidate in the history of our country. One might point out: But these respondents are saying they aren’t voting next year, so who cares? My response: Unlikely voters represent a massive block of potential voters in the U.S., with estimates ranging from roughly 90 to 100 million citizens. With likely voters having largely made their minds up already and split evenly, the mood of the unlikely voter – who is intentionally screened out of most surveys by pollsters – may have an outsized impact on the 2024 election outcome. Right now, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are dead even in national polls – most of which survey likely voters, according to the RealClearPolitics average. ![]()
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